A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
